I received an email yesterday in which the writer suggested that the end of capitalism was nigh, and that the laissez faire, deregulated and privatised economy had been shown to be deeply flawed and was now imploding. In fact, he’s not particularly alone in expressing this view. All over the place recently, as the credit crisis took over the news columns, people have been predicting the imminent demise of free markets and the arrival of a leaner, less greedy but more ethically satisfying era.
Of course predictions of the end of capitalism are not new. For a hundred years or more there has always been someone on a soap box, quoting Marx and speaking fearlessly about the internal contradictions if capitalism and the inevitability of its imminent death. It hasn’t happened, but every so often capitalism seems to reinvent itself and return to the market in a slightly different form. Some of the key defining moments of change were, for example, the development of the ‘social market economy’ under Konrad Adenauer and Ludwig Erhardt in West Germany after the Second World War (for those who can read German, here is an interesting short account of the origins); and perhaps even more significantly, the acceptance of the market economy by Germany’s Social Democrats in Bad Godesberg 1959, which created a political consensus around a socially aware market economy that would dominate European economic policy for 25 years or so. Then there was the dramatic recasting of the understanding of the market under Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. And now we can all speculate on what will come next after the international credit crisis – but I suspect it won’t be the end of capitalism.
The Guardian newspaper recently ran an interesting piece on how a number of well known leftwingers are reacting to the credit crisis. One of those interviewed was Daniel Cohn-Bendit, whom I mentioned in one of my last posts and who was one of the student radicals leading the protests in 1968. Forty years later he says that capitalism, when in crisis, always has ‘the intelligence to reform itself’. But he adds: ‘However, the belief that the market is god is over. It must now be regulated.’ This indeed is the response of many commentators, including recently Fintan O’Toole in the Irish Times. Broadly speaking this response suggests that what we are now learning is that government intervention and regulation is a good thing, and that the small-government-and-deregulation brigade have had their day.
Actually, one of the myths surrounding economic policy since Thatcher is that we have had an increasingly deregulated market watched over helplessly by small and ineffective government, in which anything goes. It’s hard to see the substance in that picture: since the 1980s a whole plethora of new regulatory frameworks and agencies has emerged; indeed the corporate misdeeds of Enron and others created a regulatory firestorm so intense that it became nearly impossible to recruit company directors. Nor did any of the governments most visible in all this, from Reagan and Thatcher to Blair and Bush, preside over shrinking government; under all of them government has grown significantly, even if it was occasionally differently distributed.
What we have just seen is the collapse of a seriously crazy business model that had gripped part of the financial industry in recent years. And because this industry holds the funds that fuel both production and consumption its troubles cast a long shadow over everyone else. But it isn’t the collapse of capitalism, nor the birth of a whole new economic order in tune with Marx’s Das Kapital. Capitalism will survive, with maybe a new twist or two.
In fact, for those looking for the birth not so much of a new world order, but the return of ideology as the defining point of difference between those competing for power this may yet all turn out to be a massive disappointment. There may actually be a little bit of me – that part of me that enjoys the sheer fun of political debate based on ideas – that will also be disappointed by that.
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