Election results, available now!
There will be elections this year in both Scotland and Ireland. Both will affect me, in different ways. Right now I won’t make any predictions about how it will all go in Scotland, though as the election approaches I shall suggest some issues on which I would expect the parties to provide answers, mainly of relevance to higher education. But I’ll return to that on another occasion.
Today I am going to predict the outcome of the Irish election. I have looked at the poll evidence, and I have looked at each constituency and the strength, as I see it, of the actual or likely candidates. I am also making an assumption (which I won’t for now explain) as to how the current internal convulsions in Fianna Fail will go. Based on all that, here is what I believe will be the compoition of the next Dail:
Fianna Fail 39, Fine Gael 60, Labour 43, Greens 0, Sinn Fein 16, Independents 8.
This would give Fianna Fail a better outcome than most others predict right now, but I think some predictions under-estimate the electoral skills and attractions of some FF deputies who will score above their party’s national rating. If I am right, the following five groupings would have an overall majority: FG/Lab; FG/FF; Lab/FF/Ind; Lab/FF/SF; FG/SF/Ind. Some of those are more likely than others.